The Northwestern Wildcats get set to open their season this Sunday at home against our perennial Lone Star opponent Texas Pan-American, coming off back to back 20 win seasons for the first time in school history. After first round exit in the 2010 NIT, the Cats marched through the first two rounds of the 2011 NIT before falling in overtime to Oklahoma State in the quarter finals. Only a few years removed from the disasterous campaigns of 2006 and 2007, it would appear that the men in purple are on the upswing as they chase that “impossible” dream we like to call Madness. This year’s team returns senior All-everything candidate John Shurna, a ton of talent at guard/forward in juniors Drew Crawford, Alex Marcotullio and sophomore JerShonn Cobb, and experience at center in Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti. Northwestern will also feature some of the most hyped freshman to take the court in purple in Tre Demps and Dave Sobolewski. However, the focus for the early part of the season may not be on who is back for the Cats this year, but rather the noticeable absence of one player: Juice Thompson.
Juice’s offensive prowess, ability to take care of the ball, and grasp of the Princeton Offense lead to him starting all four years at Northwestern. But beyond his impressive stat sheet during that time, Juice was also the vocal and emotional leader of an improving Cats team. For a team not particularly known for their attitude, he brought a fire to the court that was often the catalyst for a big run or shocking upset. In time our young talent should be able to replace the holes he’s left on offense, but taking the next step as a program could very well come down to the team’s ability to replace the lost leadership.
Good basketball programs are those that have the ability to – pardon the cliché – reload, not rebuild year after year. Following the winningest two year stretch in program history, Northwestern finds itself with increased media attention, increased support, and the potential to break into the upper half of the conference. Considering this, 2011 will be a crucial year to the team’s long term trajectory: continue to win and momentum (support, recruiting or otherwise) will continue to strengthen. Come up short of any post season, and the many of the recent gains could potentially be lost.
So, what do we expect? Let’s dive in! Today we take on the offense:
The Good:
The Cats’ offense in the half-court should continue to be a strength in 2011, as it was in 2010. Few teams in the Big Ten (+ 2) feature as many scoring threats from all over the floor as Northwestern. Shurna, the senior with a deadly, if unconventional, outside shot and a solid interior presence, should lead the scoring barrage. Barring injury he’ll be a force to be reckoned with throughout the season, period. Crawford’s continued development as a multi-threat player will be key to taking the pressure off of Shurna and the incoming freshmen. The junior has shown brilliance at times over his first two years, but his game has certainly been streaky at times. When his threes are falling, the Cats’ will be able to boast an unstoppable 3-4 players on the floor capable of shooting over 35% from behind the arc. However, on the days he goes cold, Crawford will need to be more aggressive and use his athletic ability to drive inside and take more high-percentage shots around the basket. No question he’s got the skills, but he’ll need to shed the hesitation to be “the man” at times.
Northwestern’s 3 point party continues with junior Alex Marcotullio, or Marco-3-llio to those of us who feel an uncontrollable desire to come up with crappy nicknames. A career 36% 3-point shooter, look for Marco to step up to fill some of the scoring void created by Juice’s gradutation. After averaging 6 points a game in 2010-11, Marco should put up consistent double digit scoring nights in the 2011-12 campaign. Also helping to fill the void will be sophomore JerShon Cobb. Cobb’s game is more like that of Crawford, but an injury-plagued freshmen year limited his contributions.
These four returning studs will be sharing playing time with two of the most heralded incoming freshmen in memory, Tre Demps and Dave Sobolewski. While video out on the Youtubes has created palpable excitement about these guys, any Northwestern fan knows that with the complexity of the Princeton Offense, it may very well take some time for the freshmen to settle down and get comfortable. The good news is that word coming out of the Cats’ throttling of Robert Morris on Monday is that Sobo is the real deal and ready to go already. Demps showed flashes of talent, but is likely to need more work as Northwestern plays through their non-conference schedule.
The Not as Good:
Let’s discuss the infamous center position. A note to take the edge off ahead of any seeming negativity: playing center in the Princeton Offense requires a different (and often broader) skill set than doing so in a more traditional set. In addition to being expected to bring size and scoring around the hoop, our centers need to be able to run the offense from the top of the key, be moderate 3-point threats, and generally be more mobile than others at the position. It’s hard, I get it. But this position has been a weakness for the Cats for as long as I’ve followed the team (8 years!), and for all of the strengths Northwestern boasts on offense, center could continue to be a concern this year.
The Cats return a ton of experience in Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti. Both have shown the ability to contribute on offense, with Curletti being the slightly stronger option if not for his propensity to put the ball in the hands of the guys wearing the wrong color jerseys. Both players bring size down low, but are simply smaller than a lot of the centers they’ll be facing when the Cats get to conference play. To overcome this, both Luka and Davide need to bring an aggressiveness to the court, and therein lies the issue. For all of their size and talent, our centers just often play “weak.” Limited output from this position is by no means a death knell for NU’s offense, but it takes away what could be another way to beat opponents, particularly on nights when the outside shoots aren’t falling. With another year under their belts, the collective hope is that we’ll see the tough play out of these guys that we’ve been looking for.
The (Potentially) Bad:
Concerns at center or not, I stand by the feeling that we should be ok in the half-court offense. Unfortunately, as the name implies, that covers only half of the court. While Juice’s offensive contributions may be replaced rather quickly, losing his ball handling skills as PG and ability to get the ball across the timeline under pressure are more worrying. In his place, Marcotullio, Demps and Sobo are all likely to share time as the primary ball handlers. Marco has been pretty solid in that role when covering for Juice in the past, but the jury is still out on the freshmen.
With the exceptions of a couple of our tougher non-conference opponents, I’m not too worried about our ability to bring the ball up during the early part of the season, but look for ¾ or full court pressure to ramp up as we enter Big Ten play. In a worst case scenario, turning the ball over or committing 10 second violations under full court pressure will lead to us seeing more consistent pressure as the season drags on. Even if we manage to get the ball into the half court without turning it over, time wasted dealing with the pressure could result in issues running the Princeton Offense effectively once there. We’ve seen a significant increase in the speed of the offense in the past two years (no more of the desperation heaves as the shot clock hits zero), but with freshman and sophomores contributing significant minutes this season, the offense may require more time to generate open looks and cuts. Between shooting reps, I hope that Carmody has the guys practicing every possible way to get the ball across mid-court safely and quickly. Well, that and defense… (more to come on that one)
More broadly, as the season kicks off we’re forced to ask “who’s the leader?” This is by far the biggest void left with Juice’s graduation. Despite being the clear star, Shurna has traditionally lead by example, rather than vocally. Mirkovic wears his emotions on his sleeve, but to a fault. With Mirk, the bigger concern is him getting his emotions in check this season, rather than trying to get him to inspire the guys around him.
If anyone is to step up, my pick is Marcotullio. Since his freshman year, he’s brought an intensity and an attitude to the court that most Cats’ fans aren’t used to seeing. By taking over some of the PG role Juice had filled, the transition to him as the new vocal leader seems natural. The biggest impediment to him carrying the team’s "leader" tag could be his play: if he emerges as one of the top 2-3 guys this season, it’s easy to take on such a role, but if he’s less of a contributor, it’s harder to get others’ attention. Come the end of non-conference play, we should know a lot more.
Our other major potential speed bump will be staying healthy. Injuries have derailed more Cats’ teams than I care to count. Vukusic, Coble, Shurna – all major players who have gone down in recent years. Any serious run to the Tournament will require Northwestern to avoid anything much worse than the usual bumps and bruises that come along over the course of a season. So far, things aren’t looking good: Marcotullio, Crawford and Cobb all sat out Monday’s exhibition with injury, and their status for Sunday’s season opener is questionable. Marco and Crawford are fighting ankle injuries, while Cobb is nursing hip problems that could potentially slow him for the whole season. With a weak opening opponent, the Cats may be able to scrape out a win with some or all of the group on the bench, but they’ll all be needed next week as Northwestern competes in the Charleston Classic.
The Ugly:
Did you know that if you shoot the ball and miss, that your team is allowed to chase it down? Northwestern doesn’t.
Yes, I know I sound like a broken record (and like every other Northwestern fan on the interwebs), but our lack of offensive rebounding is, err, offensive. And it’s not like we’re sacrificing rebounds so that we can drop back and play a fantastic defense. Lately we’ve been stopping less than the Mexican border. Sure, we limit opponents’ transition baskets, but what’s the difference between them scoring 5 seconds or 25?
We’re a team heavily reliant on mid-range and 3 point shooting, and there’s going to be games where we just can’t hit anything. It happens to everyone. On days when you can’t make your first attempt, you have to try to give yourself a second or third chance to score. Our size and strength will definitely prevent us from being an elite rebounding team in conference no matter how hard we try, but even being mediocre is a significant step up from abominable.
The scrimmage again Robert Morris hasn’t given us any reason for hope, either. Despite winning 99-48 on 63% FG shooting (a ridiculous 71% from 3), the Cats lost the offensive rebounding battle 17-5. Some of this discrepancy is certainly due to the Cats having fewer opportunities for rebounds with their hot shooting, but even accounting for that, Northwestern snatched 28% of possible offensive boards compared to 36% for Robert Morris.
The Others:
I’ve only touched on 8 players in this preview so far, but a few others should be noted. Jr Reggie Hearn saw significant minutes against Robert Morris and may get a chance to pick up a few minutes per at guard this season, particularly if the Cats can’t ditch the injury bug. Hearn is comfortable from both inside and outside the arc, and has shot ~30% from 3 in limited playing time so far in his career. Sr Nick Fruendt could also pull some time this season at guard or (in a worst case scenario) center if our big men get in foul trouble. Despite going 2-2 from deep on Monday, Fruendt tends to play closer to the basket, where he shot 50% last season. Michael Turner and James Montgomery III round out the squad, but I’d be lying if I said anything I wrote about them was more than irresponsible speculation. So let’s leave it at “they look good in purple.”
Overall:
Generally, the offense with be what carries Northwestern through the 2011 season, and the Cats should once again be in the top half of the Big Ten conference in points per game, after being 3rd in 2010-11, averaging 72 points. While Shurna is likely to lead the team in scoring, overall scoring should be very balanced across the team, in addition to having significant contributions for the first and second guys off the bench. The 3 will continue to be the heart of the offense, but with the very un-Northwestern-like athleticism of Crawford, Cobb and the freshman, mid-range jumpers and points in the paint (excluding layups) will likely constitute a larger percentage of the output than traditionally seen. The Princeton Offense should generate the classic open layups in our non-Con play, but those will probably be more limited in Big Ten play, as we’ve seen against most B1G teams in recent years.
There are going to be moments of frustration, for sure, as the loss of Juice should mean more turnovers, struggles in full court pressure, and a clunkier offense than last season overall. Unfortunately, I feel like the Cats will blow a couple of B1G games this year due to these issues – something that could very well haunt them come selection time (for the NCAAs, or others). With a few tough games scheduled for the non-Con slate this season, we should have a good feel for the team’s prospects ahead of conference play this year. How they stack up offensively versus last year’s squad we’ll know in just a few weeks.
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